Tag Archives: Picks

Completely Ignorant NFL Week 7 Picks

Introduction

Another week, another picks column. Another week, nothing but the picks column. Like I said a couple of week ago, I might need to consider changing the name of the web page. But, and this is important, two thing have happened. Chris is back from his trip to California, so we can record on the weekends. And, our weekend craziness is going to take a break with soccer finishing up soon and Liam’s play performance happening next month. That will free up a lot of time for us to record, too. Oh, I thought of another thing. Winter break happens for all of us in December and continues into January for me. That means we will definitely get this thing on track for the new year.

Until then, I’ll continue to amuse and amaze with my weekly picks column. After a 10-5 record two weeks ago, I went 11-4 straight up last week. I’m also plus .500 against the spread over the last two weeks.  Either what I said last week about the first 4 weeks of the season being crazy due to a shortened preseason and I’m getting the hang of things or the gambling gods are setting me up for a fall in the coming weeks. We shall see.

The Cosmic Joke of Thursday Night Football

A couple of weeks ago I stated that I would henceforth just be picking home teams on Thursday night football as they have an advantage and I’m quite busy during the week to pick a game before Thursday night. Well, the gambling gods responded to that challenge by making the Giants the home team last week and then the Cardinals this week. I suppose that says something for making such broad and sweeping proclamations. Needless to say, I did not pick the Cardinals this week.

Week 7 Picks

To hit my deadline, I need to just list the picks again. Going to scarecrow in the park and then a 2 year old’s birthday party.

Chargers over Titans in London

Pats beat the Bears, but I have Mitch in daily fantasy so hopefully their defense still stinks.

Colts roll the D3 Bills

Detroit steals a win in Miami

Vikes beat a surprisingly frisky Jets

Browns over the Bucs. What can I say other than God Bless the Browns.

Jags nip the Texans

C’mon New Orleans, beat the Rats

LA Rams stay undefeated against the 49ers

Dallas over the Racists

Chefs get back on track against Cincy

And, the Falcons beat the hapless Gynts

The Verdict

Nothing here to really get excited about. Certainly nothing on the order of the Chefs/Pats game last week. The Steelers are on a bye, which gives me the chance to talk about how I’ve gone from a life long Steelers fan to actively despising the team. See you next weekend.

Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 5 Picks

Introduction

Week 4 went very horribly wrong against the spread. I was a respectable 7 and 6 again to go 7 games over .500 straight up, but could not pick a spread to save my life. As this is an experiment, I have a couple of hypotheses. First, maybe the NFL is weird with only 4 preseason games and things don’t start to settle down until Week 5 or 6. Two, and possibly more likely, is that I’m not a sharp and I don’t have the time or the inclination to be one.

I’m still going to keep track of picks against the spread to see if things improve over the next few weeks. If they don’t, then my 10 or whatever dollars every week that I plan to bet starting next year will just go to money line bets. I don’t mind throwing money away, but I’d rather have a chance every now and then to win my money back.

A Note About Thursday Night Football

Have I said how much I hate Thursday night football? Not this week in this article, so here goes. Craig texted me at about 8 pm on Thursday with the news that Sony Michel was starting on our fantasy team and he hoped I was okay with that. I didn’t get the text until it was too late to do anything about it, but told him what my plans would have been. Cut to us texting back and forth with updates for every single yard he gained until he got the garbage time TD. All of fantasy is garbage time and I love to hate it. Oh, I picked the Pats. Let’s just say that I pick the home team every week on Thursday so I don’t have to feel bad about missing that deadline.

Week 5 Picks

Another week in just under the deadline, so just the picks, Ma’am.

Baltimore over Cleveland

Kansas City continues to roll against Jacksonville

Tennessee rolls Division 3 Buffalo

Carolina beats the hapless Giants

Denver over the weirdly favored Jets

Vegas has no idea what to do with the Falcons and Steelers. Neither do I, but I’m out on Pittsburgh. Falcons roll.

Green Bay gets another key divisional victory over the Lions

Cincinnati limps into a tie with Baltimore in the division lead after destroying the once heralded Dolphins.

Chargers return Gruden and the Raiders to their losing ways

Arizona hasn’t had their “Hey, we’re an NFL team, too” game like the Bills did against the Vikes, right? Maybe this is it and they beat the 49ers

Minnesota reminds Iggles fans what it used to be like

Jared Goff and the Rams destroy Seattle’s depleted secondary

Houston over the Crybabies of Dallas

Finally New Orleans rolls the Washington Racists

The Verdict

Week 5 isn’t as bad as week 4 was, but it’s a busy weekend for our family. We already spent the better part of yesterday at a local festival and we are scheduled to do so again today. Not that I’m the football fan that I used to be, but there’s nothing here that would keep me home. Heck, after Michel got 20 points the other day, I’m not even going to watch my fantasy team this week.

Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 4 Picks

Introduction

It is most definitely a good thing that I have chosen to take at least this year as a trial run before putting any actual money down on this silly league. I went 5-11 last week against the spread, but did much better straight up 10-6. I knew that it was going to be a bad week when the corpse of the Buffalo Bills was up 21 points on the double digit favorite Minnesota early in that game. Oh well, put it behind me and forge on to Week 4.

A Note about Thursday Night Football (Week 4)

I thought that the Vikings would be able to keep the game close, so I picked them with the spread, but I knew that the Rams would win the game. During the Steelers/Bucs game I texted Chris, “All I know is that KC and LAR are good. The rest of this league is a toss up.”

Week 4 Picks

Once again, to get in under the deadline, I’m only giving picks. No witty comments about the games. However, I’m starting to figure out the schedule of the semester, so witty will be back next week. Maybe I’ll even be able to post an article or two not about sports. Over the last month, this has been 2 Guys talking about the NFL. And, I’m not even that big of a football fan anymore.

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-5): Falcons

Detroit at Dallas (-3.5): Lions

Buffalo at Green Bay (-10.5): Buffalo

Philadelphia (-3) at Tennessee: Eagles

Houston at Indianapolis (-1.5): Colts

Miami at New England (-7.5): Miami

Jets at Jacksonville(-9): Jags

Cleveland at Oakland (-2.5): Browns

Seattle (-3) at Arizona: Seahawks

New Orleans (-3.5) at Giants: Saints

San Francisco at LA Chargers (-9.5): 49ers

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3): Steelers

The Verdict

Overall, Week 4 isn’t very compelling. There are a few good games (Bal/Pit, Miami/NE), but nothing that will keep me glued to the computer screen. Simmons and Sal have called these weeks “apple pickers” because you can spend time with your family instead of watching football. I don’t have such a dilemma and we didn’t get paid this week, so apple picking isn’t an option. However, I do have some yard work to do, so maybe I’ll call these “yard work” weeks.

Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 3 Picks

Introduction

Another week, another picks column. As Belichick says, “We’re on to Week 3.” Sure, this one is coming on Sunday morning instead of Saturday afternoon or evening. Because of that you will be spared my, perhaps (not so), witty reparte for each game. To paraphrase Al Davis, “Just picks, Baby.” But, I’m still coming in under deadline!

Before we get there, though, I need to take my medicine. After a mediocre first week, Vegas murdered me this week. I went 6-10 against the spread and 8-8 straight up. I’m not sure if they qualify as sharps or not, but it sounded like Simmons and Sal didn’t exactly have the greatest of weeks either. Maybe it was just a weird week of football. There was the second tie in as many weeks, after all.

A Note on Jets/Browns

I know this is going to stretch my credibility a bit, but I did pick the Browns this week. One thing I know about Thursday night football, other than it sucks on almost every level, is that they often favor the home team. I did pick the Jets to cover, though, so maybe that will lend some authenticity to my pick.

Week 3 Picks

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3): New Orleans

San Francisco at Kansas City(-5): Kansas City

Oakland at Miami (-4.5): Miami

Buffalo at Minnesota(-16.5): Minnesota

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (NL): Philadelphia

Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington: Green Bay

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3): Cincinnati

Tennessee at Jacksonville (NL): Jacksonville

Denver at Baltimore (-5.5): Denver

New York Giants at Houston (-3.5): Houston

Los Angeles Chagers at Los Angeles Rams (-7): Rams

Chicago (-4.5) at Arizona: Chicago

Dallas at Seattle (-3): Dallas

New England (-7) at Detroit: Detroit

Pittsburgh (-3) at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay

The Verdict

Week 3 has some intriguing story lines. Chris and I were texting about the Browns as Tyrod Taylor had a line at one point that was 2-7 for 7 yards. Then Mayfield came in and I’m happy as hell. I want to see the guy do well to stick it in the ears of all of the talking heads who “hot take” want him to fail because he’s too exuberant.

Are New England and Pittsburgh done? Probably not for the Pats. Almost definitely for the Steelers. Can the little brother Chargers win against the mighty Rams? As you saw above, I don’t think so. Carson Wentz is coming back. All in all a potentially entertaining week of football.

Completely Ignorant NFL 2018 Week 2 Picks

Introduction

I didn’t do too badly last week. Both against the spread and straight up, I went 9-6. I’d obviously like to improve Week 2, but it’s not crucial. Since this year is just about hitting deadlines as consistently as possible (more on that next section), I’m not sure if I would have come out ahead on money with my picks. I also should probably take this season as a test run. Don’t want to develop a gambling problem if I’m going to consistently throw money away. I already do that enough comic books and Magic the Gathering cards.

A Few Words on Thursday Night Football

It only took me one week to miss a deadline. I don’t know if I properly expressed my displeasure with Thursday football last week, so allow me to elaborate. Football on Thursday makes me have to check my fantasy team one more day during the week. Thursday football means that I look like I’m being negligent with the web page because I miss my deadline. The games are always terrible. There’s just no reason for this abomination to exist.

Further, the game this week is awful for me as a Steelers fan. During last year’s Super Bowl, I made the comment that picking between the Pats and Iggles was like choosing to cut off a limb or saw it off with a rusty knife or something like that. This game, which has the Rats playing the Bungs is worse. But, all things being equal, I chose the home team. You can choose to believe me or not. I’m 1-0.

Week 2 Picks

Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5): Atlanta showed me absolutely nothing in the first game against the Iggles. Carolina wasn’t much more impressive, but at least they beat the Cowboys. I’m picking the Panthers to go 2-0 and take a bit of a strangle hold on the NFC South. George: Carolina

LA Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo: I picked LA to win and to cover because I thought they were the Rams. It seems like that is going to be a running theme this year. The Chargers stink, but the Bills are virtually nonexistant. I’ll stick with my initial instinct. George: LA

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5): Fresh off his one legged whipping of Da Bears, Aaron Rodgers gets to face another ridiculously good defense. The Pack is at home and you can’t ever count them out as long as Rodgers is in there. If he doesn’t play? They get rolled. George: Green Bay

Houston at Tennessee (NL): The Bungs/Rats was a pick. There is one other pick and this one is no line. This game makes sense because of Mariotta, but I don’t remember there being 3 games in a week with no line. What a nightmare for actual gamblers. Either way, I think Houston bounces back. George: Tennessee

Cleveland at New Orleans (-7.5): If I should have been infuriated by last week’s Steelers/Browns line, this one should have be apoplectic. The Aint’s just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like the undisputed MVP and the Brownies played the Steelers to a stale mate. Even so, I like the Aint’s to take care of business. George: Aint’s

New York Jets (-1) at Miami Dolphins: The Jets are 1-0 after destroying the Lions. The Dolphins are 1-0 after winning one of the weirder games in recent memory. The Jets are road favorites. And I like the Jets. Hey, someone has to take 2nd place in this division. If not for the Bills, I’d make the case for this one bubbling up to respectability like the NFC South and West did in recent seasons. George: Dolphins

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-5.5): I’m going to sound like a homer and that’s fine. However, this game just feels like recent KC/Pitt games where Pitt is being undervalued due to an underwhelming first game and KC is being overvalued for a decent first game. The Steelers usually win these games 38-30. I’m not ready to declare the Steelers good yet, but I think they’ll win even if KC covers. George: KC

Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay: Nobody is giving the Iggles any respect this year. I can’t blame them as I’m not exactly ready to crown them anything, either. Their defense is good, but Nick Foles is back to being Nick Foles. Until Wentz comes back, I won’t believe in the Iggles. But, they could probably beat Tampa with 10 players on either side. George: Tampa

Indianapolis at Washington (-3.5): Indy gets to celebrate Andrew Luck returning. That’s about all they have to celebrate. Washington should win this game easily. George: Washington

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-10): After watching these two teams in week 1,  they can’t make this line high enough for me to pick Arizona. All I’ll say about them is I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald. Can’t they just trade him to New England for a chance at winning a Super Bowl? George: Arizona

Detroit at San Francisco (-3.5): The 9ers hung with the Vikings (at least as far as the score was concerned) and Detroit was eviscerated by the Jets. I’m going with Jimmy Gsus to return to his winning ways. George: Detroit

Oakland at Denver (-4): Seems that Vegas is already off the Gruden bandwagon. To my credit, I was never on it, and I don’t see anything that will happen this week to get me onto it. Last week I compared him to Art Shell. Shell might have actually been a better move at the time. George: Oakland

New England at Jacksonville (Pick): This is the other pick that I alluded to earlier. Sure, it’s in Jacksonville and they have a good defense. Every year, New England has a few eggs that they lay, especially against teams that they might meet again in the playoffs. Still, this one has me scratching my head. Patsies win. George: New England

New York at Dallas (-3): I picked Dallas but only because they’re at home. This is a game similar to the Bungs/Rats that I had difficulty choosing, but for a different reason. Neither of these teams excites me and I’d probably pick against either of them except for a few situations. George: New York

Seattle at Chicago (-3): I wasn’t sure what to think about the Mack trade after texting with Chris. He wasn’t impressed by Mack’s previous season, so I started to side with Gruden. Now I’m hearing that Mack wanted out of Oakland and with the first game he had against Green Bay, it looks like he’s back and ready to wreak havoc. I was so impressed that I picked up Chicago’s defense for my fantasy team. Da Bears win. George: Chicago

The Verdict

Not many of the games this week are especially attractive to casual fans. I’m interested to see what the Steelers do after tying a Browns team in spite of 6 turnovers and countless other mistakes. I’m starting to get excited about the possibility of the Rams being a team that just buries their opponents. Do the Jets keep riding high after their destruction of the Lions? Other than that, I’m only concerned with my fantasy team winning so that I don’t go 0-2 to start the year.

Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 1 Picks

Introduction

Over the past few years, I’ve had plans to do weekly predictions for the NFL season. I’ve never even made it to Week 1. Since my schtick here is that I’m completely ignorant when it comes to the NFL, part of what I’m trying to do is expose the fraudulent business of NFL predictors by showing that someone who knows almost nothing about the sport can perform just as well as they can. I’ve wanted to do that by picking one of these guys and comparing my record to them. While I haven’t done that this year, at least I’ve gotten as far as making my picks for the first week on time. Baby Steps.

Who is George?

While my picks aren’t completely random, as you’ll see from the article that follows, I also had the idea to further drive home the point that these chuckleheads don’t know any more than you or me by pitting them against a coin. 100 coins actually. A simulation of 100 coins actually. Quarters. Hence, George, because, well I’m sure you get it.

A Note on Atlanta/Philly

At the end of my NFC Preview, I picked the Hall of Fame game. Is that what they’re calling it? Whatever, that first Thursday night game that screws fantasy players because everyone forgets about Thursday night football. I forgot about Thursday night football until I got a text from the comanager of our fantasy football team about setting the line up for the night. I replied, “I hate Thursday Night football”.

Now I have more of a reason to hate it. I picked the Falcons to win because I figured that Nick Foles deal with Satan has to be running out soon. What I forgot is that the Iggs have a pretty good defense, these Thursday games are always weird, especially this first one, and the road team almost never wins. So, we start the season 0-1.

Week 1 Picks

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland: As a football fan, I should be shocked that Cleveland is getting any respectability this year. As a Steelers fan, I should be appalled that Cleveland is within a touchdown of the Steelers. Then, I accidentally heard some stats this weekend that pertain to the game. When these two teams played in Week 1 last year, it was the only game that Cleveland was within 6 points of the opponent. Also, Pittsburgh is only 15-12 when one of their “Big 3” doesn’t play. This is like Cleveland’s Super Bowl. They’ll keep it close and might even cover, but the Steelers win. George has the Steelers, 52-48.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.5): If Minnesota’s defense is even close to as good as they were last year, they’re going to be really good. Other that Jimmy G-sus, I can’t name a single 49ers player. Even so, last year the kid seemed to have a horseshoe around his neck. I think Minnesota wins, but the 49ers should be able to keep it close at least. George isn’t sure, 50-50.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3): Indianapolis is “favored”, but we all know that the home team generally gets three points on the line. So, Vegas isn’t sure what to do with this game. To be honest, neither am I. I don’t want to pick Cincinnati because a win could jump start a surprise season for them and I don’t want that. However, there’s no reason to pick Indy other than they are at home. Cincy it is. I need a shower. George has Cincy at a slight edge 51-49.

Buffalo at Baltimore (-7.5): Either people think Baltimore is that good, Buffalo is that bad, or both. I’m somewhere in the middle. I think both of these teams stink, but Baltimore is home. Enjoy it while you can, Rats fans. George picks the Bills, 53-47.

Jacksonville (-3) at New York Giants: It feels weird to have to give the Jags respect. Look, I know that they beat my Steelers last year in the playoffs to make it to the AFC Championship. However, my enduring memory of Jacksonville will forever be that I memed my way to a fantasy football championship with Blake Bortles as my starting quarterback. I guess I can sell this one as disrespect for the Giants. There’s no problem there. George picks his first home team, 47-53.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5): This is the largest line of the weekend. I won’t say that I’m shocked, but I am a bit surprised. Sure, New Orleans was a miracle play away from winning against the Vikings in the playoffs last year and Tampa Bay…is a nice city to visit, from what I hear. Still, almost double digits in Week 1? That’s crazy. What else is crazy? I’m picking New Orleans to cover. George likes New Orleans pretty big, 45-55.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Miami: If I wasn’t shocked by that last line, I certainly am by this one. What about Miami makes anyone think that they can stay within a field goal of Tennessee? This seems like a no brainer, which means usually means that I probably should have used my brain. George likes Tennessee, 56-44.

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5): Another slightly perplexing number on this one. I understand not having much respect for the Chefs because of Andy Reid, but he’s a decent to good regular season coach. Initially, because I was thinking about the Rams, I was going to choose them across the board, but the Chefs seem a lock in this one. George has KC, 53-47.

Seattle at Denver (-3)Cliche alert: This is a rematch of a recent Super Bowl. Two? Three? Years ago. That just goes to show how crazy the NFL is these days. You’d never know by watching this game that these teams were recently in the Super Bowl. I have more faith in Seattle than many do this year and this game will go a long way in seeing if that faith is misguided. George says Seattle, 55-45.

Dallas at Carolina (-3): Okay, either we are overestimating Dallas (and when has that ever happened) or underestimating Carolina (for some reason, I can’t imagine why, oh maybe random Cam Newton hate) or both. I have always liked Cam Newton and hated the Cowboys, so I think the Panthers are going to roll them. George doesn’t think blowout, but still Panthers, 45-55.

Washington at Arizona (-1): As much as I hold an irrational hatred for Washington due to their racist nickname and the stubborn refusal of their owner to change it, I have no reason to believe that this game will even be close. George goes against the racists, 45-55.

Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5): Honestly, I think this should be the line that is pushing double digits. Sure, Chicago picked up Khalil Mack, but what’s that going to do for them? This team has been a train wreck for the better part of the last two years. Green Bay rolls. George’s most sure pick so far, 35-65 for GB.

New York Jets at Detroit (-6.5): The Jets are starting a rookie at quarterback. I guess that can’t be any worse than they’ve done recently. Still, this makes me think what happened to Teddy Bridgewater. Once upon a time, he was the future and then he was tossed from both the Vikes and the Jets. Yikes. Um, oh, Detroit wins. Maybe the Jets cover. George goes with Detroit, 46-54

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Oakland Raiders: Two words: Rams win. Oh, you want more words? Rubber baby buggy bumpers. Seriously. Why only 4? Home game? Okay, but they’re leaving for Vegas. Jon Gruden? Remember Art Shell? Probably not, but I do. We’ve seen this show before. Spoiler Alert: It doesn’t end well for the Raiders. George thinks the Rams roll, 60-40

The Verdict (and Early Super Bowl Picks)

Overall, Week 1 looks like a decent week of football for anyone who is actually going to watch the NFL. I think we are going to be out at a fair with our youngest to start the autumn fun for our family. There will be checking of my fantasy football team at some point, so I’ll also update my Excel spreadsheet to keep track of how George and I are doing for the week. I include my Super Bowl picks here as well because I had a fairly strong premonition that it could be Iggles/Steelers. It’s been at least a couple of years since I picked and all PA Super Bowl, so why not.