I plan to give the post mortem of the actual game. But, you know how we do things around there. Instead of throwing out half baked ideas as soon as the game ends in order to receive early accolades, we throw out half baked ideas after a week so that our bad ideas rise above the cacophony and illustrate just how bad they are. So, first, I present our Betting the Bowl 2023 Post Mortem.
You may remember that I tacked on a betting article at the end of last week as a final preview of the Super Bowl. I got the idea from simultaneous emails that arrived from both Draft Kings and FanDuel telling me about their sportsbook apps opening up in Massachusetts soon. They are eager to take my money. Perhaps they should heed the warnings of this post.
Stupid Prop Bets
The only prop bets I found to discuss in that earlier article were the coin toss (truly a sucker bet) and the Gatorade color. Vegas apparently needed the money this year (see the above picture for commentary) because they dumped purple (purple?! purple?! really?! purple?! I’m just trying to win a damn bet! Shoutout to Jim Mora there.) Gatorade in victory. Maybe next year I will throw some of my windfall (shot up to 10000 fake dollars with my other bets) into more prop bets when the sportsbooks are actually live.
Single Dollar Bets
Even on these stupid bets I made up on the spot to try to ride on the coattails of Simmons, I cleaned up as you will see. Since I only put a dollar overall into the bets, I cleared less than a dollar profit, but you all can do that math. So, let’s do the math.
Most Sure Bet (confidence: high): If you bet the Chefs to win, Mahomes was MVP. I got a bit nervous at the end because Hurts went TF off and I looked at my father in law and said, “If the Chiefs win, can they give Hurts the MVP?” I mean, the guy deserved it. But, the 0.25 parlay paid 0.93 cents and I already made my money back. Cha ching. Lost as a result (0.05 for the Iggs equivalent and crazy 0.10 for Iggs/ Sweat MVP parlay).
Most Sure Bet (confidence level: irrationally high): 0.25 to win 1.75 for Kelce to score first. Chiefs won toss and deferred, so….
Throw Me a Frickin Bone! (confidence level: high): 0.10 to win 0.80 for Hurts to score first. All it took was a questionable call taking it away from Gainwell (16 to 1) and then that ridiculous rugby play to get him there, but 0.80 richer because of it!
Living on the Edge: 0.10 to win 0.08. I called this one wrong because I thought the Chiefs might put this one over in the first half. Turns out the Iggs and their ridiculous rugby play paid this one out in no time. I should watch more football if I’m going to bet on this stupid sport.
Sevens Heaven: Last 0.14 to win 0.13. Tossed this one in to get down to my silly penny parlay. Both teams scored in the first quarter. Easiest money ever.
So, keeping score, I bet 0.99 and made back a profit of 0.94. Pretty damn good if I say so myself.
Perplexing Penny Parlay
I came up with the idea of using my last penny to put together a parlay that, if successful, paid out over 100 dollars. Once I started putting together the bet, it became pretty easy to get it over 100. The actual bet paid out 133.90 (a. if successful and b. if it won)
Before I go on, let me say that I know how parlays work. And I know this one sunk from the get go. But, still, 5 out of 7 hits isn’t a bad percentage and I’d take that any time on single bets. I think next time I might play around with the format and increase it to 1 million dollar payout on a penny. bet. That might be pushing it, but I will get it as high as I can while still making the parlay reasonable.
My betting the bowl 2023 post mortem is mostly a positive. An almost 1:1 payout on basically 5 bets (as some auto failed on the success of others is pretty good. Also, I picked the last two winners and last two MVPs from this year and last year. I said to my father in law several times, my dad always told me not to bet on a game where the ball bounces funny and I intend to keep that line. Still, I had fun and can’t wait to be back next year bigger and better.